If we sell Kolo Toure then expect Philippe Senderos back

I’ve read that Kolo Toure has played his last game for Arsenal and has emptied his locker at the training ground.

If this is indeed the case then it is truly a sad day at Arsenal. Kolo Toure is loved by Gooners but it appears his career with Arsenal maybe over.

He has suffered numerous set-backs over the last year and although it will be sad to see him go perhaps now is the best time for both club and player to split.

Perhaps Kolo needs a fresh challenge to give his career a boost. He has become stale in a way and a new challenge maybe just what he needs.

Arsenal will need a replacement and unfortunately I don’t expect Arsene Wenger to sign one. Not whilst he can bring Philippe Senderos back anyway.

We all know that Arsene Wenger is prudent with his war-chest and I don’t expect this to change for a centre-back.

Senderos hasn’t set Milan alight and has rarely featured for the Rossoneri. I’m surprised because I believed that he would do well in Italy and thought that Serie A would really suit his ability’s.

I’m not guaranteeing that this will happen or do I have inside information but I wouldn’t get excited about possible names like Upson or Chiellini. Not while there is a chance of Senderos coming back.

Keep it Goonerish……….

Written by Wrighty7 on January 5th, 2009 with no comments.
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Al-Fayed And His Money Are Soon Parted

This January Transfer Window promises to be the most unusual (and analytically complex) market since the buying and selling of footballers became a restricted process.

The transfer market is already a highly inefficient marketplace as numerous key holistic parameters are not taken into account in the player evaluations.
So, for example, a ridiculous amount of weighting is given to sabermetrics - a pseudo-science based on player statistics - while virtually none is given to the impact of corruption on match outcomes (and, hence, player values).
It was this rampant market inefficiency that persuaded the Dietrological Trading Team to establish the Holistic Sabermetrics Project eighteen months ago.

As market analysts, we seek out inefficient markets ie markets where all the information is NOT in the price. In any mature market sector, virtually all markets are inefficient due to the corrupt natures of the market infrastructures.
So, football betting markets and football transfer markets are central to our portfolio.

Last year, we held discussions with several different British entities about our Holistic Sabermetrics Project, but each operation had organisational or individual limitations, either due to a lack of professionalism or a fondness for criminality. Or both.
As the state of the corruption in English football is cartelised, to a very large extent, we decided to look further afield for an operation that chooses meritocratic routes as opposed to corrupt ones.

And our patience has undoubtedly paid off.
We are working, on a trial basis it must be said, with a leading entity from another territory.
We are providing a range of high level consultancy services - basic player evaluation based on the fundamentals and the sabermetrics; the role of the betting markets in any assessment of a player value; enhanced scenario analysis relating to the state of the global financial system and its effect on future transfer windows; the impact of the Recession/Depression, now and in the future; issues relating to currency volatility; the development of hedging strategies to minimise risk.

We detail these aspects briefly below, before we go on to look at the current transfer market in England and the role of corruption in this market, as we complete the post with a basic fundamental player assessment, stripping away the fake layers to determine the Real value of the player concerned, rather than the neohyperreal market value.
We could have chosen virtually any players but, because we like a good wind-up, we have selected Andrew Johnson.

Using fundamental parameters is obviously a vital input to any player rating. But, such parameters are also of limited value unless treated as a big picture whole. Percentage of passes that are successful over different distances, and the fitness of players, for example, are key.
But, think about this for a moment.
If you are solely going to base evaluations on such data, what if there are systemic impacts that render the data as corrupted?
It is of minimal value to utilise the basic fundamental data, although some much more interesting sabermetric analyses may be undertaken utilising a more configurative approach. But, even with such laterally thought experimentation, the major impacts on the transfer values are omitted from the analytical process.

A Real player evaluation may only be determined with a holistic approach, and this is why our Holistic Sabermetrics Project has received such interest.
Nobody else has access to the proprietary databases that we possess, and consequently, they all compete using the same over-rated and expensive sabermetric services eg ProZone, Opta etc.

Equally important in these financial times are the scenario analyses both with respect to the football sector itself, and to the wider financial system.
The transfer market is characterised by short-termism and kneejerk reactions are generally what passes for a strategy.
By modelling the manners in which the markets, the sectors and the global template might progress, Holistic Sabermetrics are able to place all transfer activity into a continuum, allowing for the buying and selling to be undertaken at the most appropriate time.

The Recession/Depression is also an elephant in the transfer teashop.
Apart from the obvious basket case/ potential basket case issues eg West Ham United, Newcastle United, Portsmouth, Chelsea etc, strategic planners like Abu Dhabi United are able to purchase, at inflated prices it must be said, by taking a longer term perspective.
But the Recession/Depression is going to have far greater systemic impacts than the short-term winners and losers in this current transfer window.

For a start, there is a bubble in transfer evaluations which has parallelled the bull markets in stocks and housing. The recent evaluations have been a case of buying at the top of a market, and that is hardly a sensible basis on which to build a trading entity.
So Fulham spent £31 million in the summer - it is our estimation that those assets have since depreciated by nearly 50%. This is partly because only fundamental sabermetrics were utilised in the transfer evaluations, and partly because the market has dropped by 30% since the last transfer window.
30%!!!!
In 4 months…

And the Recession/Depression will have increasingly greater impact until the Great Depression MkII has played out its secular bear market phase - around 2017, on current projections.
Consequently, all player evaluations must incorporate an adjusted view of history, a present state of play, and a future of probabilistic scenario analyses, which, when combined, will provide the ultimate modular approach to assessing player values and the timing of purchase/sale.

Currency volatility, counter-party risk, toxic ‘assets’, a freeze in the payment mechanisms, the prospect of publicity for the criminalities that are widespread in the transfer markets (eg third part agreements, agents working for both club and player, bungs, suitcases of money away from taxing eyes, and the imposition of a virtual slavery conveyor belt in West Africa, in particular) etc etc add further levels of complexity to the transfer market when viewed in the longer term.

As does the impact of the gambling markets.
There is a dichotomous neohyperreality to a corrupt player who is involved in short-selling his teams matches for his and his agents proprietary gain. For, although the said player is of minimal value to his club, he is of maximal value to the corrupt agent.
The mainstream media is the acquiescent party that allows this fallacy to be maintained.
Regular readers will be aware of the players who have been repeatedly mentioned on Football Is Fixed as being dodgy.
Regular readers will also be aware that it is these self-same individuals, with the transfer rumours and the ghost-written newspaper columns, who are able to maintain a high profile in the public eye, entirely at odds with the Reality of the corruptions perpetrated on the pitch.

The model that we have created incorporates all of these inputs, and more, and is robust.
You would be astonished at some of the player values that appear as outputs.

In the summer, Fulham paid between £9 and £13 million for the Everton striker, Andrew Johnson, who arrived at Craven Cottage alongside Bobby Zamora, another forward from West Ham United.
Both of these purchases were poorly judged on every level.
Firstly, as we mentioned above, Fulham spent heavily on players at the top of the market, meaning that all of their transfer payments were inflated considerably.
Secondly, Bobby Zamora has played 17 Premiership matches to date, and has scored precisely one goal. ‘Nuff said…
But, thirdly, and of far more interest, is the case of Johnson.

Lets check out the hindsight initially.
In three seasons in the Premiership for Crystal Palace and Everton, Johnson had scored 38 goals in 98 appearances, and it was this goal/game ratio of 0.39 that persuaded Roy Hodgson to purchase.
But this figure is a fallacy, for 13 of those goals were scored from the penalty spot.
One goal in every four games is most certainly not worth the transfer fee.
Additionally, Johnson had secured zero goals in his 8 appearances for England.

As a comparison, we’ll look at Mario Gómez of Stuttgart, who Fulham were also rumoured to be interested in.
In the last three and a half seasons in the Bundesliga, Gómez has scored 39 goals in open play from 66 games, and his market value was said to be around £15 million in the summer.
The club evidently made the incorrect choices.
Mind you, they also acquired Pascal Zuberbuhler who is, by some distance, the worst goalkeeper that I have ever set eyes on, so we should not be surprised at such nonsenses…

But the Real situation is worse than this.
In the first five games of the current campaign, Johnson failed to score.
In the next match (the internally corrupted match against Wigan, where Johnson ‘presciently’ wore a ‘100 goals’ vest to celebrate this milestone, even though this was his first goal in over six months!), Johnson netted two pseudo-goals as the match was rigged.

So, in Reality, Johnson has scored 2 goals in fifteen appearances since moving south.
This evidently displays the dangers of i) trusting agents and ii) using simplistic sabermetrics.
For when we apply a Holistic Sabermetric template to Andrew Johnson, our model suggest that a true current value would be £3 million.
And, Zamora is valueless, zero…
As for Zuberbuhler………

If they didn’t have Jimmy Bullard and Brede Hangeland in their team, Fulham would be West Bromwich Albion.

© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological

Written by Football Is Fixed on January 5th, 2009 with no comments.
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Chelsea - King of Clubs

Chelsea - King of Clubs

by Maro10

Written by Darkvader on January 4th, 2009 with no comments.
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Chelsea 1-1 Southend : FA Cup

Chelsea 1-1 Southend

Goals

1-0 Kalou
1-1 Clarke

Highlights

by fred54

Written by Darkvader on January 4th, 2009 with no comments.
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Is Nicklas Bendtner the new Gooner whipping boy?

Every club usually has a player that the fans don’t really take too. Over the last couple of seasons it has been obvious that Emmanuel Eboué isn’t the most favoured of players with Gooners. It now appears that a new face is fast becoming a rival for Eboues title of “least favourite player”.

Nicklas Bendtner is becoming a player that is taking a lot of stick from Gooners at the moment and while I’ll admit some is warranted, people getting on his back is certainly not going to help improve his game.

Bendtner comes across as arrogant and this does not help his cause. Nor does the fact that he can be extremley lazy at times. Gooners will forgive a player who has a lack of ability but who works hard in a game. Bendtner has ability, but at times will not work for the team.

The flashy boots he wears are making things even worse for him. Yes, he is young and trendy, but the footwear he is wearing at the moment doesn’t give off the right signals to the Arsenal faithful.

I suggest leaving the green or pink boots at home. Leave them to the players of the world who have achieved something in the game. Nicklas has achieved nothing yet but I think at times he believes he has made it. He needs to back up those boots.

Bendtner can be frustrating and I don’t think that he has improved as much as a lot of people believed he would of. Like some of the other young players really. But we forget that he is young and still learning the game.

He can make things hard for himself by not working hard in a game but it seems now that even when he is trying some Gooners are just waiting for him to fail so they can say I told you so. Bendtner is a confidence player and he obviously can sense the tension from the crowd.

Being a young player it must be difficult to have the crowd breathing down your neck every time you have the ball. It can be confidence sapping and for a player who thrives on being confident to be on top of his game, its little wonder he is playing poorly.

I’ve no idea whether Nicklas Bendtner will make it at Arsenal. What I do know is he has got ability but we’ve only seen glimpses of that this season and he hasn’t improved as much as I believed he would.

Only he can improve his game. He has a long way to go and if he thinks he has made it then he is wrong. He needs to work hard at his game and I sometimes wonder if he needs some senior guidance from an older player in his position. Unfortunately for him he doesn’t have that available to him.

If he begins to work harder in games then Gooners will get behind him, but that is down to him. He cannot continue to waltz through games, because every club has a player who is berated more than others. If he is not careful then that player could be him more often than not.

And he could see himself at Goodison Park on loan in exchange for Arteta!

Keep it Goonerish………….

Written by Wrighty7 on January 4th, 2009 with no comments.
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Nasri and Vela can be the creative spark for Arsenal

I’ve seen enough of Samir Nasri to convince me that he can play a more creative role in the middle of the park for Arsenal.

While Arsenal have been suspect at the back for a while now you could always count on us creating numerous chances throughout a game.

With Fabregas, Walcott and Rosicky missing we have lacked a creative spark in the team and Nasri, with a more central role, can provide us with that.

By moving Nasri into the middle of midfield and playing Vela on the left, Arsenal would cause teams plenty of problems.

I’m sure Vela is ready to play more regularly now and despite Wenger saying he is a striker he looks comfortable down the left flank.

With Vela naturally left footed it will provide the team with more balance. I know throughout the years Arsenal haven’t played the game with natural wingers but Vela can come inside as well because he is confident to do so.

We still need to buy players though, and I think that despite this “remedy” another creative player is needed. Arteta is a player who could do a job in the middle or out wide but I think another type of player is needed first.

I still feel Arsenal need to buy a defensive midfielder and that should be at the top of Arsene Wenger’s shopping list.

I know Wenger loves to attack but defence is the most important part of a successful team. I honestly feel that a defence made up of Sagna, Gallas, Djourou and Clichy is solid enough.

However, the defence seems to have a lack of protection from the midfield and that is why we look so vulnerable at the back.

A player who can allow the midfield to attack and protect the back-line is something Arsenal have been missing this season.

If we get the right player to play this role it would cut out a lot of goals that we concede.

Keep it Goonerish………..

Written by Wrighty7 on January 3rd, 2009 with no comments.
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Gallas and Toure???? It’s all about Djourou!

A lot has been made of Kolo Toure and William Gallas “spat” but Wenger has poured cold water on it.

These things happen all the time between players and it’s been said that Kolo Toure handed in a transfer request over the “bust up”.

I’d be very disappointed if the reason for Kolo wanting to leave was down to an argument. I suspect it’s really to do with a lack of playing time.

Arsene Wenger said that the transfer request has been withdrawn which is great news. Now all Kolo needs to do is get his head down and work hard at becoming the Kolo we all know and love again.

Toure and Gallas have been in the news for all the wrong reasons this season and it’s easy to forget the emergence of Johan Djourou throughout this.

I have championed the cause of Johan all season and really feel that he can become a great centre back for the club.

He has pushed himself into regular first team contention and certainly deserves his place in the side.

I really like the partnership Gallas and Djourou have formed and it’s up to Kolo to work hard and get his place back.

One things for certain. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Johan Djourou as the number one centre back next season.

Keep it Goonerish…………

Written by Wrighty7 on January 3rd, 2009 with no comments.
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The Arsenal contradictions keep on coming!

Its great in this day and age that a football club as big as Arsenal is run sensibly amid all the uncertainty of having a billionaire owner who really doesn’t give two shits about the club.

However, what isn’t so great is that we Gooners are forever being fed untruths by our club and even more disappointingly, our own manager.

What is going on at Arsenal? People keep on contradicting themselves at the club. One moment we are being told there is no money to spend, the next we are told there is.

Saying this, at the back of my mind I’m hoping that all this talk of having no money is just a bluffer. The transfer market is very over-inflated at the moment and maybe it is a ploy by the club to try to keep prices for any transfer targets down.

Whatever the case, we need to qualify for the Champions League. We Gooners want to see Arsenal play in the Premier European tournament and the board need the money that comes with it.

Bearing in mind how much Arsenal money stand to lose if qualification for the Champions League is not achieved then I’d argue it would be worth spending some money now to help make sure we do.

It would be a disaster for Arsenal if we didn’t qualify for the Champions League. We seem to be selling players every year regardless of qualification, we would probably have to sell the whole squad if we didn’t!

Another worrying aspect the club need to consider is the fact that Gooners pay a huge amount of money to watch the club. Things are very tight in the current financial climate and it is hard to afford these prices.

Will Gooners still pay the asking price if Arsenal are in the UEFA Cup? I don’t think they will and who could blame them?

I think that Arsenal could buy better and more experienced players than what we have and it wouldn’t cost a fortune. Every club is suffering financially. Take advantage of it.

Keep it Goonerish…………

Written by Wrighty7 on January 2nd, 2009 with no comments.
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“Chelsea Hero” - Lampard

“Chelsea Hero” - Lampard

Tittle : “Chelsea Hero” - Lampard
Montage : Runner
Lenght : 2 minuty
Size : 40mb
Program : Sony Vegas 7.0
Music : from my mp4, without tittle
Thanks : Seann, Sir Ali_cdaman

DOWNLOAD : | Server I |Server II

by Runner

Written by Darkvader on January 1st, 2009 with no comments.
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If Kolo Toure has lost his fight then maybe he should move on

Kolo Toure has put in a transfer request and it seems to me he is just trying to take the easy option.

What happened to the fighter that we all loved? Why has he given up so easily?

Kolo Toure and William Gallas have apparently had a falling out, so what! People fall out all the time. Its called life.

I suggest that Kolo pulls his socks up, gets his head down and works hard at trying to regain his place in the Arsenal side.

Now is the time to show what he is made of instead of sulking because he isn’t in the team. Believe me, thats what this is really about, not the argument with Gallas (if that really did happen)

He has no one to blame but himself for not being in the side. He has been woeful over 2008 when played and seems out of condition.

If he loves Arsenal as much as he says then he shouldn’t give up so easily. He should fight for his place and earn it back.

He owes it to us Gooners. We love him and don’t want to see him leave the club. I want to see the old Kolo back, not the player we are seeing at the moment.

Having said that if he has given up then sell him. I don’t want to say it but its the only option really. There is no point having a player who doesn’t want to be there, regardless of who he is.

We must remember that the club is bigger than any person, and that includes Kolo Toure.

Keep it Goonerish………..

Written by Wrighty7 on January 1st, 2009 with no comments.
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