"How can one not speak of terrorism, how can one find a good use of the media - there is none" - Umberto Eco.
As we recently prompted you, and we like a theme, all markets are functions of economic and psychological mechanisms.
This would necessarily include Political Prediction Markets and, moreover, the hyperrealities that they seek to efficiently price.
Currently, Intrade are pricing Barack Obama at 64.0-64.1 on the 2008 US Presidential Index, while John McCain comes in at 30.7-31.5
Mathematicians among you will have noticed that the means of these spreads do not add up to 100.0 as they should in a two horse race.
Intrade prices represent the wisdom of crowds, and hyperrealities are judged as to their illusory meaning by insiders and analysts trading with their own cash.
The markets are pricing a 4.85% probability of someone else other than these two charlatans getting into the White House.
What are these people expecting? A Clinton coup? A Cheney coup? McCain to die? The end of the world as we know it? Somebody shooting Obama?
The US Presidential Spectacular is the biggest show in town.
Forget Euro 2008, forget the Olympics, the Race to Run the World on Behalf of the Deep State is the major sporting spectacle of the year.
Despite there being merely a slither of difference between the policies of the Democrats and the Republicans, there are powerful interests who would prefer more of the same, thank you very much.
Recessionary Realities are sidelined by Legacy Media Presentations, presenting the party of government as a global leader - the psychology of the populace being a major input to the outcome of the sport.
Lyotard: "Effectively truth is trumped by the best possible input-output equation".
And, in this case, that means the best for the Republican party.
Obama Barack will not win in November.
If he does win, it will be because he has become white.
Edward Dowling: "The two greatest obstacles to democracy in the US are, first, the widespread delusion among the poor that we have democracy, and second, the chronic terror among the rich, lest we get it".
Putting to one side the necessary provisos that voting is only marginally useful, and that, if it changed anything, it would be abolished, what is on offer for those allowed to vote in the 2008 Presidential Spectacular?
The Republicans - The party that tore up the Geneva Conventions to bring you cheaper oil, stolen from the Iraqi people. Illegal wars around the world, extraordinary rendition, state terrorism, systemic torture, a recession that might deepen into a depression, Enron, illegal wiretaps, a refusal to engage in climatic realities, a protectionist agenda, a regressive tax regime and overseeing rampant dysfunctional speculation in the financial system, sometimes emanating from within government itself.
Voters should remember the words of Emma Goldman, as history repeats itself again and again: "How our hearts burned with indignation against the atrocious Spaniards!... But when the smoke was over, the dead buried, and the cost of the war came back to the people in an increase in the price of commodities and rent - that is, when we sobered up from our patriotic spree - it suddenly dawned on us that the cause of the Spanish-American war was the price of sugar.... that the lives, blood, and money of the American people were used to protect the interests of American capitalists".
And this shower might get back in?
"To think that people like you once ran a country..." - Georg Dreyman in 'Das Leben der Anderen'.
Why are the markets only going 64% Obama?
John Pilger: "The foregone nomination of Barack Obama, which, according to one breathless commentator, 'marks a truly exciting and historic moment in US history', is a product of the new delusion... Understanding Obama as a likely president of the United States is not possible without understanding the demands of an essentially unchanged system of power: in effect a great media game".
Obama is a pseud.
He is an illusion.
As the election approaches, his "left" views will become centrist and even rightist. Obama's statements to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee showed support for an "undivided Jerusalem" as Israel's capital. Obama has also promised to continue a 47-year crippling embargo on Cuba that has been declared illegal by the UN year after year. And he has also endorsed Colombia's "right to strike terrorists who seek safe-havens across its borders".
Despite claiming that his campaign funds come from small donors, supporting "change" over the internet, Obama's campaign is actually funded by US corporate oligarchs.
Such backers include Wall Street firms: Goldman Sachs, UBS AG, Lehman Brothers, J P Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, as well as the huge hedge fund Citadel Investment Group. "Seven of the Obama campaign's top 14 donors," wrote the investigator Pam Martens, "consisted of officers and employees of the same Wall Street firms charged time and again with looting the public and newly implicated in originating and/or bundling fraudulently made mortgages".
So, when it comes down to it, Big Capital doesn't really care who gets into the White House. An understanding has been reached whatever the outcome.
More of the same, thank you very much.
Whoever you choose...
Trading Prediction Markets is profitable. Firms like Intrade offer a wide range of markets that are highly inefficient ie they offer value to discerning traders and they are extremely psychological systems. An analysis of mass behaviours is the basis of profit.
These markets also offer interesting arbitrage opportunities between hyperreal global events. So, for example, Intrade's US Presidential Index may well, at certain prices, allow arbitrage value to be found with respect to the 'US Economy to Enter Recession in 2008' market or, perhaps, the 'USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2008' market - Intrade kindly illustrate this latter market with a photographic image of a stealth fighter dropping copious amounts of bombs onto some unsuspecting citizenry somewhere.
So.
Is Obama a buy?
Can the racist "last remaining primitive society" really elect a Black man?
Is your standard redneck going to understand that Obama Hussein Barack has absolutely nothing to do with Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein or Iraq?
Although nobody is saying it, the key parameter underpinning the US Presidential Election is race. Has America evolved enough yet?
And, in any case, is Obama really Black?
If he is Black, he has no chance of winning.
But, even if he becomes white, it is difficult to advise Obama as a Buy option on the markets, for the reasons laid out below:
* America simply has not evolved enough yet on racism.
* If the cancelled states had been included, in the popular vote, Clinton would have beaten Obama.
* The campaign was bitter and many Clintonites will not vote Obama.
* The Black vote is overly concentrated in heavily gerrymandered southern states that will return a Bushite whatever the political climate.
* Republicans are able to vote in Democrat primaries, in a complete contortion of anything resembling a democratic principle, and the fact that there was a momentum behind such individuals to be supporting Obama over Clinton was an agenda sourced in the right wing radio shows of America's heartlands.
* One in three Black men are barred from voting due to alleged criminality.
* Several of the key swing states possess demographic and socio-economic structures that works against Obama's core constituencies.
* In the inner cities, Hispanics and Blacks fight over territory - the ghetto vote, in that it exists, is split.
* Just in case it starts looking likely that Obama might fade to a whiter shade of pale, rogue reverends will be around to link the pseudo-white with Al Sharpton, Louis Farrakhan, Malcolm X, OJ Simpson, Michael Jackson, whichever spectacle of alleged Black inappropriateness that the media chooses to project on to the campaign.
Elections in the US/British paradigm are a postmodern entity.
The whole edifice is based on the illusion of democracy.
Baudrillard's phases of the image allow us to precess through these stages of the de-linking of the democratic process from its supposed primary aim.
A True Bottom Up Democracy with Proportionality
Something Called Democracy but Less Proportionate and with External Power Restrictions
Something with Apparent Links to Democracy in Some of its Operations, but Minimal, Limited and Disproportionate
No Link Whatsoever with the Democratic Process - an Image, a Hyperreality
Gerrymandering, hanging chads, non open source software for the computerised voting machines, the limitation of universal suffrage based on race, guerrilla voting in the primaries, electoral outcomes being based on the views of a right wing Supreme Court.
The will of the people?
Debs: "Capitalist courts never have done, and never will do, anything for the working class".
It would seem that the key question regarding the decision whether or not to buy Obama on the Prediction markets comes down to the one question. He might have the odds stacked against him whichever he is, but he is going to have to make the decision of whether to be Black or white.
Malcolm X: "You'll get freedom by letting your enemy know that you'll do anything to get your freedom; then you'll get it. Its the only way you'll get it. When you get that kind of attitude, they'll label you as a 'crazy Negro', or they'll call you a 'crazy nigger' - they don't say Negro. Or they'll call you an extremist or a subversive, or seditious, or a red or a radical. But when you stay radical long enough and get enough people to be like you, you'll get your freedom".
Dalius James, writing about Amiri Baraka and the Last Poets, stated: "In 1970 the Last Poets released their first album and dropped a bomb on black Amerikkka's turntables. Muthafuckas ran f'cover. Nobody was ready. Had em scared o' revolution. Scared o' the whyte man's god complex. Scared o' subways. Scared o' each other. Scared o' themselves. And scared o' that totem of onanistic worship -- the eagle-clawed Amerikkkan greenback! The rhetoric made you mad. The drums made you pop your fingers. And the poetry made you sail on the cushions of a fine hashish high. Most importantly, they made you think and kept you 'correct' on a revolutionary level. We all connected. 'Cause it was a Black communal thing. Like the good vibes and paper plate of red-peppered potato salad at a neighborhood barbecue. The words and the rhythms were relevant. We joined together around the peace pipe and the drum. And when it came to the rhythms of the drums, the drums said, 'Check your tired-ass ideology at the door'".
Mmmm... is Obama Black?
Nietzsche: "One must push what is collapsing".
But to what end?
For the sheer celebration of creative destruction, pushing has to always be the way forward.
But the pushing has to be for something more credible than the illusory "change" offered by Obama Barack.
Not voting undermines the illusion of their elections.
Give me a Real Bottom Up Democracy and I'll vote.
Give me a Spectacle and I'll mock it.
Baudrillard: "... the political class and civil society exchange their respective woes..., the one serving up its corruption and scandals, the other its artificial convulsions and inertia".
The very very very last thing that anybody anywhere should expect from this election is "change".
No change.
America will continue to act out Dostoyevsky's nightmare: "In any case, civilisation has made mankind if not more bloodthirsty, at least more vilely, more loathsomely bloodthirsty. In old days he saw justice in bloodshed and, with his conscience appeased, exterminated those he thought proper. Now, we do think bloodshed abominable and yet we engage in this abomination, and with more energy than ever".
You can buy "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2008" at 17.9 with Intrade.
Tempting. It would be our estimation that this occurrence would occur more than once in every six US election years.
Although we would prefer a slightly less advantageous price and a termination date of October 31st.
Anyone?
Anyway.
Who cares?
How can one take seriously the illusions of an imperial state? A state that impeaches one of its leaders for having oral sex in the White House, while allowing another to walk away untarnished, despite crimes against humanity and leading the country into the worst recession in a lifetime in order to pay for his illegal wars.
"Just how blind, America?" - Gil Scott Heron.
© Football Is Fixed/Dietrological
Written by Football Is Fixed on June 27th, 2008 with no comments.
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